2009 Fantasy Recap – Oakland Raiders

The Raiders over-achieved in 2009.   I know your next question.  How does a 5-11 NFL team over-achieve?  It’s actually easier than you might think.  Here’s the blue-print:  Draft a 265 lb pile of steaming QB $#it, refuse to  acknowledge that he is a colossal bust, and then sit back and watch the rest of your team come together and off-set said steaming dungpile’s ineptitude.

Jamarcus Russell managed to complete 48.8% of his passes – I went back to 2002 (and got tired of looking further) – this is the lowest completion % in 8 seasons.  He throw only 3 TDs to match 11 INTs, and fumbled the ball 9 times; he only played in 12 games.   Oakland’s 26^th ranked defense and Bruce Gradkowski get most of the credit for their 5 wins.  Well, that’s not true.  Anyone but Russell gets credit.  Anyone.   

It’s hard to rank high in any statistical category – running or passing – when you aren’t getting first downs.  The Raiders attempted 944 (30^th ranked) plays from scrimmage, and 49 of those were punts.   So we aren’t about to assume that the Raiders don’t like to, or can’t run the football.   Michael Bush was actually brilliant with his 123 attempts (4.8 YPC and 3 TDs).  McFadden?  Not so much (3.4 YPC and 1 TD in 104 attempts).  Justin Fargas received the most carries, and is now gone.  He was more effective than McFadden, but not by much.

From a fantasy football stat perspective,  not one player broke fantasy top 30 except for Zach Miller.  It’s also funny to point out that in only 4 starts Bruce Gradkowski (35^th) had better fantasy numbers than Jabba the Russell’s (37^th).  The Raiders finally realized what the rest of us already knew – Russell is hopeless, so they cut him.  And staying in character, Russell was able to make matters worse for himself by getting busted in the off-season with illegal possession of Sizzurp aka “the Purple Drank”.   Good stuff.     

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Oakland Raiders 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com            

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Tom Cable called the plays in 2009 and is slated to do so again this season.  We can only blame him for leaving JaMarcus in for so long, and aren’t ready to label him a play-calling failure.  The Raiders hired Hue Jackson in the off-season as OC.  We don’t have a lot to go on, as he his only season as OC was in Atlanta in 2007, and that was right after Vick got busted and they were playing musical QBs w/ Joey Harrington, etc, and didn’t have much of a ground game.  He was mostly a QB coach for the Ravens during Flacco’s first two seasons, and WRs coach in Cinci during their passing heyday (Ocho and Housh).  Based on that, and the fact that the Raiders seem obsessed with building an aerial assault (Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, and they signed Jason Campbell) we can assume they won’t be handing the ball off a majority of snaps.

AIR:  The Raiders traded for Jason Campbell.  Before he takes a snap, this is good news for the entire organization.   They also spent the off-season working hard on developing their young WRs (Schilens, Heyward-Bay, and Murphy).  Last year tight end Zach Miller was the leading receiver with 805 yards and 3 touchdowns, and while it’s possible he could put up similar numbers, we doubt he will lead the team again.  We’re eyeing Schilens as the guy, but Louis Murphy is also a candidate. 

GROUND:  The Raiders have a future all-star RB that they simply refuse to trust w/ a majority of the load.   Michael Bush is a stud (more on this statement below).   The only issue is that he’s mired in a RBBC with Darren McFadden.  On the plus side, Justin Fargas and his 123 carries are now up for grabs, so if Bush can land the lion’s share of those, he’s got some nice sleeper potential.  It’s pretty clear who is better between McFadden and Bush :  Bush averages a 4.8 ypa and Run DMC only averages a 3.4 ypa.  COME ON! How long will the NFL allow Al Davis to murder this franchise?

For the first off-season since Al Davis went senile, we are impressed with most of the moves in Raiderland.   Could Al Davis actually be living among the dead “Weekend at Bernie’s” –style?  Where’s Andrew McCarthy when you need him? 

QB

Jason Campbell – We like us some Jason Campbell in 2010, but only as a backup fantasy QB.  He has a bunch of no-name rising stars in the making at WR, and is playing in yet another brand new offensive scheme.  At face value, the situation is a mess.  The Raiders offense was bad last year and attempted among the fewest plays from scrimmage in the NFL, largely because they were incapable of completing a first down (hello Jamarcus Russell).  But Campbell showed signs of life last season in the Beltway,  closing the season with a 6 game average of 21.43 fantasy points per game.  

Verdict: In Oakland, he's got an arsenal of young talent in Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy, and Darrius Heyward-Bey (who, btw, is said to be wowing people left, right, and center in OTAs and camp this spring/summer).  As a backup QB, he's JUST fine.

RB

Michael Bush - It's only a matter of time before Michael Bush pulls a Michael Turner and lands in an organization that is willing to utilize him like he should be.  It's not happening in Oakland.  Darren McFadden and his inflated draft status and contract seem to have the final say on that.  Bush is clearly the more impressive runner (4.6 YPA vs. McFadden's 3.8 over their careers), but because he was a 4th round draft pick (2007) to McFadden's 4th overall draft pick (2008), the Raiders are determined to make it work - or that is the only reasoning I can come up with.  Bush only dropped to the 4th round in 2007 because of a broken leg (tibia) suffered during the first game of his senior season at University of Louisville.  He was widely projected to be a top ten overall pick before then.  He seems to have healed nicely. 

Verdict: The only sliver of hope for Bush is that Cable pulls his head out of his ass when the Raiders have a strong start with Jason Campbell under center.  That's less a compliment to Jason Campbell, and more a rip on how poor the QB situation has been in Oakland since Rich Gannon retired.

Darren McFadden - You know the whole saying about how mom always tells ya if you can't say anything nice about someone, you should probably just sit there and not say anything?  Well, I've ignored that advice on this website up until this profile.  It's tempting to join the rest of fantasy nation and rip into McFadden for not living up to the hype that surrounded him entering the NFL, but I like his life story - he's truly an inspiration for those souls that weren't given the benefit of a solid upbringing with good role models, etc.  I wrote a bio up on him last season - click to the left on his profile and scroll down to read it. 

Verdict:  So I'll leave it at this - McFadden, while having a larger salary than co-backfield mate Michael Bush, should be drafted after Michael Bush.  At best, they will be splitting carries, at worst, McFadden gets injured, or Tom Cable acknowledges that Michael Bush gives the Raiders the best chance to win and gives the majority of snaps to Bush.  If you draft Bush, you should draft McFadden, though.

WR

Chaz Schilens - I’ve circulated this guy’s name as a sleeper and all I get from most of the folks is “what?” or “who?” and “Chaz?  You mean your neighbor?”  Heh heh.  Dumbasses.  Chaz Schilens IS A BEAST!  You’d suck nuts, too, if you were on the receiving end of Ja-brumsky Russell’s ducks.  Well guess what?  Jason “Lips” Campbell is now under center, and to call him a QB improvement is the understatement of the century.  Schilens is 6’4” and 225 pounds and runs a sub 4.4 40 yard dash.  He’s got excellent hands and is tough to defend.  He didn’t do much in college (San Diego State) because he played for a team with crap QBs, and in a scheme that preferred to run the ball (Lynell Hamilton was one of the featured backs!). 

Verdict: Jason Campbell will be the best QB he has ever played the game with by many lengths.  Should be interesting.

Louis Murphy - Which one of the three WRs on Oakland will break out this season?  I've already spoken clearly by making Chaz Schilens a top 35 ranked WR.  I think Louis Murphy could be a likely next candidate.  He was certainly targeted (by Jamarcus Sizzurp albeit) the most of all Oakland WRs in the red zone last season.  He's tall, standing at about 6'2 200lbs, and has been described as having similar speed as Heyward-Bey. 

Verdict: Fewer teams hold more intrigue than Oakland from a fantasy perspective this summer.  There's potential.

Darrius Heyward-Bey - Bey has impressed the coaching staff with his progress this past off-season and is said to be turning heads in OTA's this spring.  Jason Campbell is capable of making one WR and one TE (Zach Miller) fantasy relevant. 

Verdict: Our money is on Schilens, but Bey is certainly electric enough to make things happen eventually, and Campbell has the gun to hit him in stride.

TE

Zach Miller - 805 yards and 3 TDs w/ JaMarcus Russell is like 1,600 yards and 19 TDs w/ like most any other QB in the league (beside Trent Edwards, Brady Quinn, or Ryan Fitzpatrick). I haven't put my theory to the test (and I'm not really sure how to go about that), hence you should not expect 1,600 yards and 19 TDs out of Miller in 2010. But with an ADP of 12 among TEs, and the fact that TEs are so deep, a wise fantasy owner will wait to draft a TE and this guy late.

Verdict: What I can tell you is that Chris Cooley and Fred Davis (in his place) did well with Jason Campbell under center. Davis finished 15th among TEs in 2010 with only 10 starts. Cooley finished 8th in 2008, and 6th in 2007 - all w/ Jason Campbell at QB. Miller is more talented than both these guys, and has produced solid stats with the likes of Russell and Bruce Gradkowski.

2010 Oakland Raiders NFL Draft

2010 Oakland Raiders Off-season Movement

Click Here for the Raider transaction report provided by ESPN.com

Click here for our 2009 Analysis of the Oakland Raiders - Published July 2009