Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the New Orleans Saints - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – New Orleans Saints

The Saints- Super Bowl Champs.  Who Dat’ or whatever.  Congrats.   What a wild ride – that city needed a Super Bowl win like no other.  I was wearing a Saints hat all year – my fiancé knew that I was collecting all 32 NFL team hats, and was down in the big Sleazy on business and grabbed me one last spring.  Good times – try walking around rural Wisconsin with a Saints hat on pre-January of 2010.  Let’s just leave it at this; there were some interesting conversations with strangers (aka Packer fans).   I’ve digressed yet again. 

At any rate, Drew Brees rolled, and did his best to make all of the pass catchers feel good about themselves in 2009.  He split the targets more evenly than any other QB in the game – 106 for Colston,  84 for Henderson, 67 for Shockey, and 64 for Meachem.   Then there was Reggie Bush at 68 targets and Pierre Thomas with 45.   Meachem had the fewest targets among the top 50 fantasy point WRs in 2009, yet finished a respectable 24^th overall among WRs – good for WR2/3 value.   I doubt he can repeat that feat on 64 targets, though.  He disappeared in the playoffs.

2009 was a great year for the Saints by all accounts, but the  question is how do they follow that up?  It ain’t easy bein’ cheesy in the Big Sleazy – or in laymen’s terms, what I’m trying to say is, it’s tough to repeat in the NFL, but it’s been done 4-5 times in the last 30 years:  The Niners in 1989 and 1990, the Cowboys in 1993 and 1994, Denver Broncos in 1998 and 1999, and the Patriots in 2003 and 2004.  Ok, and the Steelers pulled it off in 1979 and 1980 – would have been cruel to leave them off the list based on the 30 year cut off.   Wow, am I babbling today.

Passing Offense  in 2009

Rushing Offense  in 2009

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

New Orleans Saints 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com     

2010 Offensive Philosophy   

As long as Sean Payton and Drew Brees are around, the Saints will continue to frustrate opponents.  Pete Carmichael  Jr. may be the OC of this team but it is a known fact that Payton is the mastermind of the offense.  For a passing offense that gets so much hype they were only ranked in the middle of the league (15^th) in attempts with 544 and they were ranked 7^th in the league in rushing attempts with 468.   When your QB finishes in 1^st in accuracy (69.5 completion %), you don’t need to chuck it much.  These Saints hit defenses from every angle.  24 rushing touchdowns and 34 passing touchdowns make this the most potent offense in the NFL.   Opposing defensive coordinators don’t sleep much during the weeks leading up to Saints games.  

AIR:  Something interesting happened last year that is worthy of note.  After attempting well over 600 passes in 2008 and 2007, and 580 in 2006, the Saints reined this in significantly at 544 attempts in 2009 as already mentioned.   No loss of production for Brees, mind you, and the Saints are one Lombardi richer.  Hmmmm, a recipe for success, maybe?  Just maybe?   

Colston’s numbers suffered a bit, as less attempts means less targets all around.  Colston was tied (with Vincent Jackson) for the lowest # of targets in the top 20 WRs – though finished 12^th among WRs.  With a QB that does such a great job of distributing the ball, it’s difficult for me to advocate him any higher than that for 2010, and the rest of these cats are fantasy backups – at best. 

2009 Saint WR by the #s in 2009

• Colston - 70 rec./1074 yds/9 TDs
• Henderson -  51 rec/804 yds/2 TDs
• Meachem -  45 rec/722 yds/9 TDs
• Moore only had 14 rec/152 yds/2 TDs. 

GROUND:   The Saints did the right thing by not committing valuable cap dollars to Mike Bell – who by anyone’s eye was a product of the system.  Payton knew it, and knows that he has Lynell Hamilton on the bench who he can easily plug in to play the role of bruiser –which Bell has for two seasons.   He can, instead, decide to increase Pierre Thomas’s load.  Why not?  At 5.4 YPC and a playing for a contract, Pierre Thomas can be this offenses rushing meal ticket.   Personally, I am expecting PT’s overall touches to increase by about 50 this season – most of those coming on the ground.  And if I’m right on that, PT should land somewhere in the top 12-15 in RBs in fantasy scoring in 2010.  Me likey.   

As for the rest of the Saints backfield, you should plan on handcuffing Lynell Hamilton to PT, but I just don’t see Reggie Bush as even draft-able going forward.  He’s had like 4 knee surgeries in 3 years,  and is basically a slot-back (which means about 50-60 carries and 40-50 recepts a season (at best)– not enough to do any fantasy damage on a consistent basis.  

BY POSITION

QB

Drew Brees -  The Saints like passing the ball more than any other team in the league and Drew doesn't miss games to injury. We heavily debated Manning and Brees for the pole position, and Brees won out for two reasons... 1)Brees accomplished similar stats but in 60+ LESS attempts than Manning.  Will the Colts attempt another 600+ passes in 2010?  Not likely w/ Donald Brown improving steadily - and Addai is still around.  2) Coach Sean Payton doesn't bench his studs until week 17 no matter what (and anyone still playing their fantasy playoffs in week 17, all I have to say is this website is too advanced for you, so go to ESPN and read the Talentless Mr. Roto's rankings).

Verdict - Drew Brees has finished in the top 5 in each of the last 4 seasons.  There is no chance in hell (unless injury) that Brees doesn’t continue this dominance of the sky. 

RB

Pierre Thomas - ***Contract Year Alert***  Pierre will be out to prove something this season, unless the Saints sign him to a long term deal this summer.  All they offered was a one-year tender ($1.7 mill), and he signed it, but wasn't happy about it.  I tend to agree w/ the Saints on this one - Drew Brees and Sean Payton's offensive scheme have more to do with Pierre's success than Pierre.  My guess is that most NFL caliber RBs can be plugged into that offense and churn out production. They already have Reggie Bush as the 3rd down guy, and Lynell Hamilton is capable of punching the short yardage, so Pierre may be SOL on the contract front.  But don't think he won't utilize every carry to strut his stuff.  It's easy to look at Pierre's per touch numbers and get excited... one 186 touches he had 9 TDs.  His yards were light (because of the lack of touches) but his per carry average is 5.4 and per catch at 7.7.  Sneaky fantasy ballers are probably eye-ing the Mike Bell departure and smelling blood - and they'd be wise.  In his 19 career games in which he's received 10 or more carries, he's averaging 16.24 fantasy PPG. For perspective, Ray Rice finished in 5th place overall in '09 in PPG for RBs with 15.8 (basic format) - we ARE NOT suggesting you selected Ray Rice over Pierre Thomas, but PT's numbers in games w/ 10 or more carries are eye-popping to say the least. Mike Bell, the main carry detractor from PT's load, is gone, leaving only Reggie Bush and the unproven Lynell Hamilton on the depth chart.

Verdict – I don't see much risk with this ranking.  If Pierre can weasel a few more carries out of it, he could be looking at rising the RB stacks.

Lynell Hamilton - He makes a decent handcuff to Pierre Thomas in this year's fantasy draft, but nothing more. He will assume Mike Bell's role of the bruiser/short yardage back - or that is the thought. ON the other hand, Pierre Thomas has been vying for that role all along (to pad his stats in anticipation of signing a larger deal from himself) to no avail. The Saints, like the Colts, can make do with pretty much any RB with two feet and a heartbeat. Pierre Thomas owners should be nabbing hamilton in the mid-late rounds of the draft.

Reggie Bush - Reggie Bush does just enough to annoy fantasy owners to tears. If you look at his fantasy PPG, he has finished 35th (2009), 17th (2008), 19th (2007), and 23rd (2006). We know he can't run in-between the tackles, and his touch count is limited to the occasional 1st/2nd down carry, and passing downs.  Not enough touches to anchor a fantasy squad.

Verdict - Given his penchant for injury, and lack of upside, he's a backup - and I'd be inclined to take a slew of younger/unproven guys on the off-chance that they pull a Chris Johnson/Steve Slaton (rookie years) on me.

WR

Marques Colston - He's got mad skills, but suffers in an offense that is both stacked with talent and prefers to spread the wealth to keep defenses on their heels for 60 minutes.  Colston ranked 25th overall in targets w/ just over 100 on the year.  The good news is that he and Brees were still able to connect 70 times, but his final numbers were good but not great at 1074 yards and 9 scores. 

Verdict – Expect more of the same as Robert Meachem continues to blossom and speedster Devery Henderson apparently has decided to start actually catching the ball in the NFL.  Don't forget Shockey and Reggie Bush need their touches, too.

Robert Meachem - The light in Meachem's head finally clicked on in 2009, and was sleeper city (yes, he was on my 2009 draft kit sleepers - I’ll email you a copy - you can hit me up at stegman@ffarmory.com). That said, he's getting a downgrade this season.  For starters, I do not like how he finished the 2009 season - he didn't show up in the playoffs at all, and last year's numbers were probably a best case scenario for him as long as Devery Henderson is still around (and actually is improving), and of course WR1 Marques Colston. 

Verdict – Brees spreads the love, so Meachem will get his, but given the lack of upside, I think there are other guys you draft ahead of Meachem that could be that "oil-strike" (sorry, probably not the year for oil metaphors) you are looking for in your draft.

Devery Henderson - I just don't see any upside with this guy.  He's 7 years old in the league, and after having played with Drew Brees for 4 seasons he's yet to crack the 1,000 yard mark, and hasn't gone over 5 receiving TDs in his career.  It's not like he's an imposing target at only 5'11".  Fact remains, no one spreads the wealth more evenly than Drew Brees - he targeted Colston 106 times, Meachem 64, Henderson 83, Shockey 67, David Thomas 49, Reggie Bush 68, Pierre Thomas 49. That's some balance. 

Verdict - Henderson is a good handcuff for Colston/Meachem owners and nothing more.

TE

Jeremy Shockey - I think Shockey makes more headlines from his antics off the field than ones on the field.  He's never cracked the 900 yard receiving mark in his career.  And playing in the Saints offense, he has yet to crack the 600 yard mark.  The emergence of David Thomas makes things even worse for him. 

Verdict - Stick a fantasy fork in this cat as long as he's on the Saints.  He's not draftable.

2010 New Orleans Saints NFL Draft

2010 New Orleans Saints Off-season Movement

Click here to be taken to the Saints’ off-season transaction report – provided by ESPN.com