Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Jacksonville Jaguars - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags  -  When David Garrard wasn’t running for his life, he was busy not throwing touchdowns.  The two rookie olineman Eben Britton and Eugene Monroe played a lot like Finch from the 1980’s masterpiece about high school football – Wildcats.

(RIP Tab Thacker – he passed in 2007 from a long battle w/ diabetes)

Garrard was sacked 44 times which tied for 7^th in the NFL.  But that stat is misleading… he only attempted 519 passes, he was alone in 5^th place in sacks per attempt.  And when you look at the 4 teams w/ QBs who combined to be sacked more per pass attempt, you will find that they are all flat-footed slow pokes (Aaron Rodgers, JaMarcus Russell, Bruce Gradkowksi, Trent Edwards, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Ben Roethlisberger).  Ok fine, Rodgers isn't exactly a slow poke (5 rushing tuddies!) but sack numbers don’t always tell the tale.  What’s more,  former (Arizona) Wildcat Eben Britton allowed 40 “pressures” (aka hurries) which led the NFL in the regular season.  And finally, the Jags led the league in QB hits letting up 126! 

Mike Sims-Walker  - aka MSW -  clearly didn’t get the memo that states when your QB is constantly on the run that you are not supposed to break out.  He missed a 2^nd memo reminding him he’s not supposed to breakout before his “3^rd year”, for in just his 2^nd year, he broke out and returned high end WR3 aka starter caliber production with  869 yards and 7 TDs.   

Marcedes Lewis, while not posting fantasy starter numbers, did lead all NFL TEs with 16.2 YPC, and his numbers have been trending upwards steadily for his first four years in the NFL – albeit at a snail’s pace.  He represents the most dependable alternative target to MSW.

MJD  was brilliant.  He scored TDs in 10 of the 16 games, finished the season just shy of 1,800 total yards and 16 total TDs.   Monroe and Britton struggled in pass protection but were fine, along w/ the rest of the Jags online (Vince Manuwai, Brad Meester, and Uche Nwaneri) in their run blocking (4.5 YPC team average). 

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Jacksonville Jaguars 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Jack Del Rio returns for his 8^th consecutive season as head coach of the Jaguars.  He’s had a bit of see-saw tenure down in north Florida…

mostly due to the volatility of the Jags offensive line over the last few years.  Dirk Diggler – I mean – Koetter returns for his 4^th season as the OC of this fine mess on offense.  I still can’t figure out why they were not all over TO like white on Demi Moore at Diddy’s “all white” party this year

Duuuuude – MILF!

Garrard is gonna need to find someone besides MSW to chuck it to, and as stated above, TE Marcedes Lewis might end up having to be that guy.  Mike Thomas is leading the charge to win the starting gig opposite MSW, but he is really best served in the slot (he’s 5’8”).  The Jags lack a legitimate WR2 and would have benefited nicely from TO or even Anquan Boldin – however the Jags never surfaced as even a possibility. 

AIR:  If the Jags can keep games tight, they’d love nothing more than to be a running team with MJD and Rashad Jennings, but I don’t think that’s happening in 2010.  I expect Garrard’s numbers to improve as the young Offensive Tackles settle down into pass protection this season, but am still ranking him as a mid-range backup as I think there are other backups with more upside (Matt Stafford and Cassel-cuz of Charlie Weis, Kevin Kolb, Chad Henne, etc).  He's coming in at 24 among QBs in most ADPs, which I think is a bit low.  The previously mentioned concern about his lack of dependable targets was also an issue in 2009 as Torry Holt hobbled his way to only 51 catches-  zero of which were TDs.   Marcedes Lewis averaged 16.2 YPC to lead all TEs in the NFL by a long stretch (next closest was Gates at 14.6).  Yards Per Catch is an important stat, and often leads to bigger and better things.  Lewis’ YPC average (and yard total) has increased in each of his first 4 seasons in the league.

GROUND:  The Jags will continue to give their “human bowling ball”  the rock 300+ times and use him out of the backfield as well.  I was disappointed that MDJ didn’t manage more than 1 receiving TD, although it came at the perfect time (Fantasy playoffs week 15).  I just took a glance at MJD’s receiving TDs over his career, and I guess they’ve always been pretty light.  For a guy who averages about 45-50 recepts, I’d expect more than 1-2 TDs.  I’ll get over it.   Backing up MJD is Rashad Jennings, and I strongly urge, if you can afford the roster space, that you handcuff this gentleman to the “bowling ball”.  Jennings averaged 5.2 YPC in his rookie season in 2009 on 39 carries and is a brute north/south runner.  He also follows the FFArmory on twitter, but I promise that does not factor into this advice :-).

QB

David Garrard - He is completely off of fantasy radars in 2010 because of a pretty terrible 2009. What no one realizes is that he was running for his life all season due to having two rookie offensive tackles in Monroe and Britton. An off-season spent polishing up their pass-blocking will translate to more time for Garrard. The Jags are officially in youth-movement-mode at WR - Mike Sims-Walker emerged as a solid target last season, and another Mike – Thomas – appears to have some potential. Also, at this time last year, there was a lot of chatter about former 2005 draft bust, Troy Williamson, being a deep sleeper. However, he went down for the season w/ a torn up shoulder last summer. Williamson is fully healed, and having the same solid off-season. I’ve seen him mentioned on some sleeper boards, so who knows. I’m not ready to feature him there yet, but he could be a late summer addition.

RB

Maurice Jones-Drew - He remains the most dependable top tiered RB in fantasy. He doesn't miss games to injury, is a TD manufacturer, and is the center-piece of his offense. As the two 2nd year Offensive tackles, Monroe and Britton, get used to NFL pass blocking, they should also improve (they let Garrard get sacked/rushed too much in 2009) which will translate down to MJD as Garrard has more confidence chucking the ball and keeping defenses' attention balanced. Also, he has a couple of really nice matchups in the 2010 fantasy playoffs (Colts and Skins). Whether a PPR or basic or Dynasty or Keeper or whatever crazy rule scheme you play, MJD is a top 3 RB selection in 2010.

Rashad Jennings - He's a big boy at 231 lbs, and runs a 4.5 40 yard dash - he averaged 5.2 YPC last year in limited touches. It all amounts to definite handcuff material to MJD owners.

WR

Mike Sims-Walker – *ALERT* CONTRACT YEAR PLAYER - Sims-walker has plenty of motivation to stay healthy this year as he enters the final year of his rookie contract. I don't see Jax extending him before the season starts, given his history of injury. He finished as the 22nd best WR in 2009, and did most of his damage at home; in fact, he struggled on the road - something to keep in mind if you draft him because it's sort of ugly - 637 yards and 6 TDs in 8 games at home, and 232 yards and 1 TD (in only 7 games, he missed the Seattle game) on the road. Ouch. One other relevant point to consider is the offensive line - the jags were rolling with two rookies at OT last season, and Garrard was sacked/hurried more than ever in his career. With an off-season of pass-blocking practice, it is expected that both will improve dramatically. We anticipate MSW to improve upon last year's numbers. 

Mike Thomas - He's tiny, fast, and has sticky-ass fingers. He enters camp as the starter opposite Sims-Walker; however his place is as a slot receiver for the Jags to get the most out of him. I don't know too many effective 5'8" cats splitting out wide in the NFL - not saying it can't happen. There is that one dude... on Carolina... Steve something? Mike Thomas is one of those rare WR handcuffs. He's probably not going to do enough to warrant even WR4 status, but if MSW (Sims-Walker) were to be injured? Ya never know.

Troy Williamson - At this time last year, Troy was having an excellent training camp/off-season, but he ripped up his shoulder in week 2 and that put a lid on 2009. SO he starts from scratch. Early word out of mini-camps is that he's not having the same type of summer. Mike Thomas is firmly ensconced at the WR2 spot opposite MSW, leaving Troy in the slot.

TE

Marcedes Lewis - Marcedes Lewis is finding himself on a few sleeper lists in 2010. My guess is that it has a lot to do with his very impressive 16.2 YPC average last season. I'm finding it a little hard to buy into given that Garrard has targeted him 24 times in the red zone... in 4 years. Sorta hard to be a sleeper if your QB doesn't look for you inside the 20. But hey, maybe that can change - lord knows the Jags are mighty light on targets outside of Mike Sims Walker.

2010 Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Draft by Round

Click Here for the 2010 Jaguars off-season movement report – provided by ESPN.com