Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Green Bay Packers - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Green Bay Packers

The Packers – 2009 was an odd (the good odd, though) season for the Green Bay Packers.  They were an offensive with Aaron Rodgers leading the way (and league) with his QB play.  Donald Driver proved to everyone that 35 year olds can have the 2^nd best fantasy season of their careers – just as long as your contract is expiring… and your QB is finishing as the top QB fantasy producer.  Greg Jennings had an off year relative to where he was drafted in fantasy leagues last summer August – ok on the yards (1,113), but his TDs suffered (4).  It’s especially odd when you consider that Rodgers had his best fantasy season as a pro – more on that below.    

And then there was the little-know man-BEAST, Jermichael Finley.   This guy’s numbers on paper don’t tell the tale – he finished 12^th among TEs with 676 yards and 5 TDs, but he only started 9 games and only played in 13 (missed 3 due to injury).  Keep close tabs on his progress in the pre-season.  He’s got “bust out” inked on his forehead. 

Ryan Grant had his best fantasy output of his young career, notching highs in TDs (11) and yards (1,253), which were good for 8^th among RBs in a basic scoring format.

Now for the odd part… Rodgers and co. pulled off these strong numbers behind one of (if not) the worst offensive lines in the NFL.   Rodge was sacked 51 times.  It’s gotta hurt, right?

The prolific Pack offense did leave a lasting impression on people by having their season end in a nutty game in Arizona where the score ended like a high school basketball game (GB-45, AZ-51).  Better luck next year?  I think so.

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Philosophy

2010 brings back the same offensive crew of OC Joe Philbin and Mike McCarthy.  They have established themselves over the last two years as a pass happy team.  And why not?  With Rodgers, Jennings, Driver, James Jones, and Jermichael Finley, I’d be pass-silly.   

Despite all of the passes, because of the Pack’s high octane offense and frequent first downs, they still manage to attempt the 15^th most rushes, so don’t be sweating Ryan Grant too much.  He may be a boring fantasy pick, but he’s to be trusted in 2010.  Especially since the Packers didn’t make any serious attempts to augment him this past spring and summer.

Check Philbin’s effect on the Packers offense since his arrival in 2007:  The Packers were scoring 18.8 PPG in 2006, and when Joe took over in 2007, the PPG kicked up to 27.2 and has stayed there ever since.   All that, with a new QB (as of 2008).    I’m expecting mild improvements across the board in the passing department (as a team), but their rush attack should stay about the same, or could take a dip, given that Grant didn’t seem to run the same way in 2008 as he did in 2007 and 2009. 

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Green Bay Packers 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

By position:

QB

Aaron Rodgers– He led the league in sacks... and fantasy points among QBs. Go figure. I kept waiting for him to go down w/ an injury, but he never did. There are only 2 reasons he's ranked behind Brees and Manning: 1) Brees and Manning are the two most consistent fantasy producers in the NFL 2) Rodgers rushed in 5 TDs which padded his 2009 stats - he's not likely to do that again. Or is he? He rushed in 4 in 2008. You really can't go wrong with any of the three. He's got great weapons. Driver should have another good year in him, but look out for Jennings to bounce back. It took him awhile to adjust his game from the long ball to the quick slants/outs that McCarthy had move to because Rodge had no time to chuck the deep ball. James Jones showed flashes of that brilliance that he was rumored to have coming into the league.

Verdict: Obvious stud, you’d be an absolute moron not to start him.  He is our second best quarterback on the board behind Brees.  His Oline could not get any worse so the only direction Rodgers can go is a good one.

RB

Ryan Grant -  Ryan Grant, to me, represents one of the larger paradoxes in fantasy football, check it: There is not a more bland fantasy baller that you could possibly blurt out on draft day - his game is boring. Straight north/south runner, doesn't catch the ball much, etc, but on the other hand, he's one of about 7-8 full time RBs left in the game. Exactly 7 RBs received 275 or more carries last year, and Grant was one of 'em. He finished 8th overall in fantasy scoring among RBs bouncing back significantly from a weak 2008 effort. He scored 211 fantasy points in 2009 compared to 161.9 in 2008. He also had a career high 12 TD. This is interesting - Ryan Grant had five (5) one yard TDs stolen from him; 3 by Rodgers and 2 by FB John Kuhn. He's a pretty safe pick and if I could land this guy as my RB2, it probably would be a good thing. For as vanilla a player as he is, he does play on one of the most prolific passing attacks in the game and LBs, Corners, and DBs have to start most plays leaning backwards vs. forwards. And when you look at the Packer depth chart, it's a rookie (5th round draft pick James Starks) and Brandon Jackson. Grant's job is pretty safe after a nice 2009 effort.

WR

Greg Jennings- Jennings should bounce back in 2010. '09 was an off year for Jennings for 2 main reasons... 1)He was dinged up with leg and back injuries that lingered but appear to now be behind him 2) Jennings is a deep route guy, and when the oline continued to refuse to block for Rodgers, the deep routes went out the door w/ that. Rodgers was dinking and dunking with Driver, Jermichael Finley, etc. Well, Jennings was slow to adjust to slants and quick outs as a means to earn his paycheck, but around week 11, the line decided to start blocking for Rodge, and voila, Jennings rebounded.

Verdict:  Jennings is a warrior, the 5’11” beast had down year but was able to adjust to get more catches.  There will be more deep routes this year and Jennings will be a great top 10 WR with more than 4 TDs. Oh yeah, you should probably start him.

Donald Driver – ***contract year player alert*** Sometimes football just doesn't make any sense. How does a 34 year old WR post one of his best fantasy years (top 4), and not only that, but notch his best YPA average (15.2), in a season when his QB is getting sacked 50+ times and the offensive scheme is changed to the shorter, quicker routes because of all the sacks? I've probably got Driver ranked too low.

Verdict:  Driver has always been a reliable old dog and he is a fantastic pick if you can get him low.  The balance of him and Jennings always makes hard for defenses to cover.  Green Bay always has room for good short route runners and as long as driver can keep that up he’ll do fine.

James Jones -  He's a good deep round guy to consider if you are a Driver or Jennings owner this year.  I've been waiting for this guy to step up and take over the starting spot from Driver (opposite Jennings) for two years now, but Driver's refusal to go away (and get old), coupled with Jones' erratic-at-times play (he's a bit drop-prone) have prevented that from happening. He did show some flashes of potential in a game vs. Tampa in November going for over 100 yards and a TD.  Also impressive were his 5 TDs on only 32 receptions.  A guy by the name of Sidney Rice started from such humble beginnings (click here - and check his first two seasons in the league - '07 and '08).  

TE

Jermichael Finley – Finley has made his way onto a number of bust reports, oddly enough. The sharks smell the chum, with Finley's gaudy stats in the 2nd half of the season. I'm not labeling a bust, because I'm not ranking him high enough to do that. With all of the depth at TE this season, there is no good reason to be taking risks for a little upside. He finished 12th overall among TEs and he only started in 9 contests and missed three due to a knee injury. He was a favorite red-zone target of Aaron Rodgers (17 RZ targets in only 9 starts and 13 games total!), and converted 5 of those for TDs. There is no doubt of the upside with this pick, but I am seeing him ranked higher - hence some sneaky fantasy "experts" listing him as a bust.  

Verdict:  Jermichael will start in all fantasy leagues – if not right away, once he cranks his first hundred yard game (prolly week one).    For as good as Finley is, Aaron Rodgers will make him even better.

2010 Green Bay Packers NFL Draft by Round

2010 Green Bay Packers Off-season moves