Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Denver Broncos - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Denver Broncos

Here’s a little music to get you in the mood.

The Broncos- The 2009 season was quite the rollercoaster ride – it wasn’t all love, though.

It all started with a Brandon Marshall temper tantrum where he ended up trying out to be Denver’s punter. 

They were able to get Marshall under control before the season start, though.  Next came this:

Hey Gus Johnson – act like ya been in the booth before, there guy.   That “Gusgasm” was a bit extreme.  Regardless, that play seemed to set the tone for the first half of the season, as the Broncos proceeded to bust off another 5 wins.   Read our 2009 Broncos analysis:  Stegman was $#!tting bricks by week 7.   But as forecasted, though, the Broncos’ success would not last.  After a 6-0 start, they would lose 8 of their next 10 games, including 4 straight at the end to crush their playoff hopes.   

Fantasy-wise, the ‘09 Broncos gave us one good thing, Brandon Marshall.  He was just as big of beast on the field as he was a menace off it.  Marshall finished the season in the top WR fantasy points and he was even better in PPR leagues. Tied for 3^rd in the league in receptions (101) and 7^th in the league for TDs (10) Marshall proved he doesn’t need a good QB to be a great WR.  Running back Knowshon Moreno, while nothing to marvel at, did show moxie – for a rookie, anyways – and should be improved in 2010. The rest of the Broncos offense was dreary.  Kyle Orton proved his mediocrity with a middle ranking  in pretty much every category, 14^th for passer rating, 14^th comp. percentage, 15^th in TDs, and 13^th in ypg; and most importantly – 16^th in fantasy PPG.  Eddie Royal, who was in our 2009 Bust report, did not catch one TD all year. 

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Denver Broncos 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

With the return of McDaniels and offensive coordinator Mike McCoy the Broncos will still be a pass-first team despite that no one is sure who their QB1 is this year.  Last year , the Bronco’s attempted the 9^th most passes in the NFL, and just because Marshall is gone, don’t expect that to change.  McDaniels has passing in his blood.  Up until last last season, McD has always had a top ten fantasy QB, even turning Matt Cassel into one with the Patriots in 2008.  However, he learned in 2009 that it’s no so easy with no Randy Moss or Wes Welker.   Expect McDaniels to off-set the loss of Marshall with more looks out of the backfield to Knowshon Moreno.  Moreno was a beast in this capacity in college, and McD really didn’t exploit this in his rookie year, as Moreno struggled a bit in pass protection, as most rookies do.  Moreno only caught 28 balls , and I see that number spiking up to 45+. 

AIR:  The Broncos drafted Demaryius Thomas to eventually replace Marshall so if Thomas can mature quickly and learn the offense, he should get some looks.  However, it will be Jar Jabar Gaffney who will immediately benefit from Marshall’s departure.  Gaffney was the Broncos 2^nd leading WR in 2009 with 51 catches for 730+ yards.   He could be looking at his 1^st 1000 yard season.   

Kyle Orton has been named the starter, but if their losing streak carries over from 2009, we could get a look at Brady Quinn or rookie Tim Tebow (more likely).   Tebow will be on the field in 2010, as I expect McDaniels to take advantage of his quickness in the red-zone in “wildcat” or “wild horses” formations.  McDaniels pushed hard to draft Tebow higher than expected, so you can bank on that.   Eddie Royal will also start, and his numbers should spike a bit, but he’s nowhere near a starting option. 

GROUND:   The Broncos will run to keep teams off-balance and nothing more.   Long gone are the days where pretty much any name can be plugged into the Denver running scheme with a golden result (see Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, Terrell David, Clinton Portis, Reuben Droughns, Tatum Bell, Mike Bell) Knowshon Moreno grabbed 7 TDs and close to 1000 yards in his rookie seasons on about 250 or so carries.   Moreno’s carries could spike slightly in 2010, but until Correll Buckhalter can prove that age is a factor, he will continue to bogart carries out of the Denver rush attempt kitty.  He averaged 5.2 YPC vs. Knowson’s 3.8 ypc – but he is 32 years old (but low mileage) as of about week 5. 

QB

Kyle Orton - What do you get when you replace Brandon Marshall with Demaryius Thomas?  We don't know, either, which is why we are ranking Orton at a spot where he probably won't get drafted.  What we do know is that he finished 16th overall among QBs w/ Brandon Marshall.  Demaryius should have a bright future ahead of him, but rookie WRs typically struggle their first year.   McDaniels will find ways to get Tim Tebow involved, especially in the red-zone, which will further erode Orton’s fantasy numbers.  He’s barely a QB3 in 2010.

Verdict: Orton has zero upside, and could very well lose his job to Brady Quinn (actually, probably not, cuz Quinn is really bad).

RB

Knowshon Moreno - Relative to skill-set, Knowshon was a no-shown in his rookie season.  Sure, (its) McDaniels (not McDonalds) only ran him about 240 or so times, letting Cornhole Buckhalter hoover about 150 or so carries (more annoying Belichick disciple crap), but in the carries he did receive, he didn't show that bad-ass, spin-move, dominating style that got him drafted so high in the first place.  3.8 YPC is weak.  He did, however, look strong catching balls out of the backfield as expected.  28 catches for 213 yards and 2 scores isn’t too shabby.  He’s capable of more than that, though, as he showed in college.

Verdict: PPR'rs, you would be wise to notch him up a few spots from this ranking, but given McDaniels' track record, it's hard for me to believe that he's just gonna hand the ball off to Knowshon 300+ times with Buckhalter still around (who btw, ran quite effectively in his limited action).  Face it peeps, the RBBC is here to stay!

Correll Buckhalter - Find me another 31 year old RB with under 600 carries and I'll make you famous. Correll Buckhalter entered the NFL highly touted, but injury after injury kept him on the sideline or the couch for 3 of his first 5 years in the league.  He has since found his niche, though, as an excellent change of pace RB.  He is like a horse-fly to fantasy owners, but to NFL teams, his 4.9 YPC is welcomed with a smile. He'll be 32 before the 2010 is over, but with so few career carries, we don’t think he should break down as long as he is seeing spot-duty – which, of course, limits Knowshon’s overall value.

WR

Demaryius Thomas – He missed most of off-season workouts with the Broncos because of a foot fracture, and this could limit his ascension atop the Broncos’ WR depth chart –at least for 2010.  As it stands, Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal are ensconced as the starters, but we wouldn’t be shocked to see Demaryius wedge his way in, thus moving Eddie Royal to the slot – where he belongs.   Lots of upside comes along with the unknown, but don’t get too nutty with him, because the QB situation is quite murky in this rocky mountain state.

Jabar Gaffney -  I’m seeing his name on a number of sleeper reports this summer.  I’m not sure I’m ready to bite, though.  He has, for now, beaten out Demaryius Thomas this summer for the starting gig opposite Eddie Royal.  He had a strong finish to the 2009 season; week 16 he caught 2 TDs, and week 17 he went for 200+ yards vs. the Chiefs – and these were two must-win games.   He was 2^nd in receiving for the Broncos in 2009 catching over 50 balls for 732 yards on the season on only 87 targets.

Verdict:  He has the height and size for an NFL wideout (6'2" and 200 lbs), but without a fantasy relevant season to his credit (and he's caught footballs from Tom Brady for three seasons), it's hard for me to buy in too high on the guy.  His first 4 years in the NFL were catching passes from David Carr, who managed to stunt Andre Johnson's growth significantly, so I suppose anything is possible.   

Eddie Royal - With Marshall out of the way, many sneaky fantasy experts are calling for Royal to produce high returns on draft day…except this one.  I have nothing against Royal, I just think Kyle Orton has a noodle arm, and unless you have Marshall's size to bowl over CBs and safeties, you aren't gonna produce the gaudy numbers with an Orton. 

Verdict: Orton should get a lot of looks this season, but I'd bet on Jabar Gaffney (or rookie Demaryius Thomas) over Royal if you are dying to draft a Bronco.

TE –

Daniel Graham is starting, but not worth considering.  McDaniels keeps his TEs in to block.  If he was planning to involved a pass catching TE to any degree, he wouldn’t have shipped Tony Scheffler out of town.  

Broncos 2010 NFL Draft

Broncos 2010 Off-Season Movement

Click here to be taken to Denver’s ESPN page to review their off-season movement.