2009 Fantasy Recap – Carolina Panthers

The Panthers – 2009 started off for Carolina the same way it ended, with Jake Delhomme chucking a lot of INTs!  Fans (or at least management) in Carolina were very optimistic about Mistakey Jakey after he bombed and threw 5 picks in their 2008 playoff loss (played in January of 2009) to Arizona but were only given an open palmed slap in the face by the QB throwing 4 INTs in the season opener against Philly.  Then the light switch flipped on for John (Fox) and he realized that Jake Delhomme should only be used to hand the ball off to his two pro-bowl caliber RBs.  Before long, Delhomme intercepted his way to the pine.

Despite Delhomme’s struggles, Steve Smith was able to salvage his slow start to finish inside the top 20 among WRs in fantasy points.   Part of this salvation was assisted by Delhomme being laid to rest on the bench – as Matt Moore came in for the final 5 games and ‘lil Stevie’s numbers took a nice spike – 3 TDs over his final three contests (before sitting out week 17).   For Moore’s part, he had two good passing games against a bad Giants defense and a Minnesota defense that was already preparing for the playoffs.   

DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart once again dominated defenses running for 2500 yards and averaging 5.1 yards per carry, ranking 3^rd in the league in both categories.  They were the big story in Raleigh and in the fantasy world placing 11^th (Stewart) and 15^th (Williams) in points for running backs.   With the oline returning largely intact, team can expect these two to keep cranking out fantasy production – RBBC style.  This is one of the only RBBCs that actually works from a FF perspective. 

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Carolina Panthers 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

The Panthers don’t have any surprises up their sleeves.  Williams run left, Stewart run right, and vice versa.  Matt Moore (or Jimmy Clausen) won’t be leaned on to win games, although their defense did take a sizable hit w/ Julius Peppers finally moving on. 

John Fox returns as coach and Jeff Davidson is back for his fourth year as OC and if their historical records have proven anything it’s that in the last four years (3 of them together) the passing game has not been good to them, and it’s been even worse to fantasy owners with none of the QBs breaking top 20 in fantasy points (Delhomme= 28^thin 2009, 19^th in 2008, 2007 Carolina collectively finished low, 21^st in 2006).  We think it’s hilarious that Matt Moore is finding his way onto sleeper lists this summer.  His chance of finishing inside the top 15 QBs is zero point zero. 

As much as Matt Moore’s finish to the season was “promising” (we use that term lightly), the run game is going to continue to dominate the offensive philosophy for the Panthers in 2010 for two reasons.   1)Their offensive line is among the best in the league and run blocking, and 2) they employ two pro-bowl caliber RBs in Deangelo Williams (contract year) and Jonathan Stewart.       

QB

Matt Moore - He is on everyone's radars (and even some sleeper lists) because of two 3-TD performances at the tail end of last year.  One was vs. the Giants who let up the 2nd most TDs (31 passing TDs) in '09, and the 2nd vs. the Vikings (who let up 10th most at 26 total) and were basically already resting for the playoffs.  Opposing defenses will torture him early and often and we will probably see a little Jimmy Clausen by about week 5. 

Verdict - He was undrafted out of Oregon State U for a reason; consider us in the "not buying" bandwagon for 2010.  He will be w/o his star WR all summer, and will be working with a bunch of rookies up until then.  Also, he plays on a team who likes to rush the football, and who is kinda good at that.

Jimmy Clausen - Is it lame to start calling Clausen Chucky, now that Gruden is squealing away in the MNF booth?  Probably, but Clausen looks MUCH more like the little murderous doll than Gruden does.  So everyone (but me) is on pins and needles to see if Clausen is another charade out of a Charlie Weis led offense, or the real deal.

Verdict - We will probably find out this season, as Matt Moore was undrafted for a reason in the NFL.  Sorry, but two decent fantasy outings has this guy on a lot of sleeper reports - the only negative to there not being any quality control on the internet.

RB

DeAngelo Williams – **CONTRACT YEAR ALERT*** DeAngelo is a free agent in 2011 and the Panthers have made no serious overtures to resigning him (they are screwed relative to the salary cap). He missed 3 games in 2009 and still finished among the top 15 fantasy RBs. His per game fantasy pt avg was good for 7th overall, so he remains as a RB1 in any format. When you crank the numbers, the only stat that took a nose-dive from his stellar 2008 breakout year was his TD count. As a team, the Panthers didn't score nearly the same # of tuddies in '09 as they did in '08, however Jonathan Stewart was the bread-winner w/ 11 overall while DeAngelo only notched 7 (keeping in mind the 3 missed games, though). D's targets and receptions actually went up in 3 less games, and his per game carry count was about the same. All this means is that you must consider D among the top 10 RBs aka RB1 status in 2010.

Jonathan Stewart – Give this guy a full load of carries, and he could easily lead the NFL on those wheels. He finished 11th among fantasy RBs in 2009 on only 221 carries and under 20 receptions.  Yowza. When DeAngelo Williams leaves via free agency after this season, and assuming the Panthers don't go out and bring another all-world talent, Stewart could be an overall top 3 pick going forward. Until then, he remains an RB2 with not a lot of upside - given the RBBC (w/ DeAngelo Williams) in North Carolina.

WR

Steve Smith – He broke his arm this summer playing flag football, but will be ready for week one.  At this time last year, I wrote a piece about how lil' Stevie only goes as far as Delhomme takes him.  Well, looks like those days are over.  He and Matt Moore hooked up for 378 yards and 3 tuddies over the final 4 games of the season officially ending Smith's dependence on Delhomme for production (the previous "no Delhomme no dice" numbers can be found on SS's FFArmory 2009 archiving-  they weren't pretty). 

Verdict - The broken arm is only a concern because he won't have all summer to get in sync w/ Matt Moore or Jimmy Clausen.  On that note, if Clausen should end up winning this job, that would definitely serve to knock SS down a few, but at the end of the day, w/ that formidable rushing attack, lil' Stevie's got it made.

Brandon Lafell – Here is another guy that is getting the OR label more than most.  Is it is because he played college ball at LSU?  Is he getting a bum rap?  For every Craig Davis and Devery Henderson LSU has produced, there is a Dwayne Bowe and Early Doucet (up and comer).  Ok fine, Michael Clayton and Josh Reed have not exactly lit things up.   The point is, let’s not just call him a bust because he went to LSU – a school that produced the biggest bust in NFL history – JoHomeless Russell.  Wow, maybe there is some validity to this after all.

Verdict - Let’s call him a bust because he drops more balls than your average Junior High school.  He was known for his drops in college – despite making the occasional big play, and it look like he’s at it again – at least in the Carolina OTAs.   He is considered the likely successor to Muhsin Muhammed (retired), and will be getting extra off-season reps with Steve Smith out w/ a broken fore-arm (damn flag football).   He’s worth a late-round drunk rattle.

2010 Carolina Pantherns NFL Draft by Round

Click here for  2010 off-season movement report for the Carolina Panthers – provided by ESPN.com

Links forthcoming

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Carolina Panthers - Published July 2009