Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Buffalo Bills - Published July 2009

2009 Fantasy Recap – Buffalo Bills

The Bills – were 31 flavors of miserable in 2010 on both sides of the ball.  Baskin (Trent Edwards) and Robbins (Ryan Fitzpatrick) are not an NFL caliber QBs – or starters, anyway.   If they were a flavor, they’d be Mississippli Mudd.  They have the distinguished honor of being the first QBs in NFL history that aren’t in tto not be fantasy relevant with Terrell Owens split out wide.   What’s more, Trent Edwards is the proud new owner of this record:

Below is a chart we did last season – QB stats with and w/o a TO…

Here, let me plug in Trent’s per game stats – 8 games – 13.75 COMP,  22.8 ATT, 146 YPG, .75 TDs per game, and .87 INTs per game.  That’s amazing.  His stats got worse with TO.  It’s literally unheard of.

Last year was TO’s worst season since 1999 (Garcia’s first year as a starter when both he and Rice’s numbers took a big dip).  He finished 27^th overall, but on a per game average, he was just 33^rd with 7.1 fantasy PPG.  Lee Evans was worse with a 6.5 PPG average good for 43^rd.  This tandem was supposed to solve Buffalo’s passing woes, but instead seemed to just make things worse.

On the ground, Fred Jackson once again assumed primary RB responsibilities while Marshawn Lynch continued to act like his shoe-size and his age  (Dusted that puppy off – I think that saying went out in 1979).   Fabulous Fred put up some rock-solid numbers relative to his touch count… 237 carries for 1,062 yards on a 4.5 YPC average, 1 TD to go along with 46 catches for 371 yards and 2 receiving TDs.   You know it’s the era of the RBBC when those numbers garner you RB2 status (Fred finished 17^th overall, but 25^th in PPG).   Marshawn Lynch continued his path of wasting the peak years of his career so that he can get his dumb-@$$ on as much as possible before he loses fame.     

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Buffalo Bills 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

It’s been a rough last ten years for Bills’ fans, and that’s the valium talkin’.  A more honest way to put it, is that the Bills haven’t been able to manage their way out of a potato sack since IT departments were crapping ostrich eggs in fear of Y2K.  Ralph Wilson finally did something about it and hired Chan Gailey to coach the Bills a season after he was fired as Offensive Coordinator of the Chiefs (in late August, right before 2009 season started).  This would normally raise a lot of questions, but because we are talking about the Bills, you have to give it a 2^nd gander.  What you’ll find, is that the Bills were unable to lure the top names in the coaching “free agency” pool – most of which were coordinators themselves.  After Mike Shanahan and Bill Cowher took a pass, the Bills hit the coordinator circuit and were turned down by Brian Schottintheeyemer (I wouldn’t leave Rex Ryan, either, that guy is good times), Ron Rivera, Russ Grimm, and even Leslie Frazier.  What that tells anyone w/ a clue is that A) the Bills are run ineffectively, and B) things are worse than any of us know from a talent perspective.   

CJ Spiller better be the best RB since Walter Payton was lacing up, cuz otherwise, what on earth were they thinking taking yet another RB early, when they have issues up and down their roster – least of which is the RB slot.  Fred Jackson and that dickhead Marshawn Lynch are fine.  How about a Cornerback or 3?  Or a run stopper, maybe?  Finally, do you think, just maybe, drafting a QB before the 7^th round would have been a good idea?  I know, it wasn’t a good draft class for QBs, but still, Levi Brown in the 7^th round?  Child, please. 

AIR:  Stay away from all things Buffalo Bills where WRs, QBs, and TEs are concerned.  I actually saw Lee Evans listed as a sleeper this past off-season.  After I peeled myself off the floor, I had to read it again, just to be sure I wasn’t having another one of those whacky dreams.   Trent Edwards has zero point zero fantasy relevant WRs to his name (Lee Evans’ numbers went into the crapper when Edwards took over from Losman, and then there’s the TO situation), and Ryan Fitzpatrick single-handedly sent OchoCinco and TJ Houshmandzadeh from the top 10 WRs in 2007 to 30^th (Housh) and 50^th (Cinco) ranked WRs in 2008 after Palmer went down w/ the elbow injury. 

GROUND:  The only area of the squad that could hold fantasy promise is mired in a ménage RBBC.   Instead of rolling with Fred Jackson, he of the 4.5 YPC rush average, they blew a first rounder on a Reggie Bush clone in CJ Spiller.  I don’t mean to slam Spiller – I know he’s a sick talent, but like I said, he had better go all-pro real quick to justify the timing of his draft pick – given the Bills’ myriad needs.   I would probably take a late-round flier on Spiller, and avoid the rest of this heap.  

QB

Trent Edwards – Hi, I'm Trent, I am the only QB in TO's career who couldn't be fantasy relevant.  Am I salty that I had him in my sleeper bucket last season?  Of course not.  What would make you think that?  FFToday said it best - there are two NFL execs that think Edwards is an NFL caliber QB, the Bills' GM and head coach.

Ryan Fitzpatrick - That's right, I'm ranking Ryan Fitzpatrick ahead of Trent Edwards, despite he's the backup.  Again, just trying to make a point.  Also, if you happen to see Trent Edwards on any sleeper lists this year, would you please email me at stegman@FFArmory.com? 

RB

CJ Spiller – Fans of this Clemson Tiger alum might not have to wait as long as it was originally thought to see him shine in the NFL as both Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch have gone down with pre-season injuries.  Neither are threatening their seasons, but Spiller is being given a giant window of opportunity, and should establish himself as the starter for week one.  You can still expect a RBBC that involves Fred Jackson, but 200 carries and around 50 receptions is not out of the question for Spiller.  However, with those two $#!tbag QBs he’s got under center, keep your expectations low across the board.  It’ll be not 8, but 9 in the box, as long as Fitz and Edwards are around, so Spiller may not be able to pull the 5.9 YPC average he maintained while in college.  Size is a concern (5’11” and only 196 lbs), but then tell that Chris Johnson (5’ 11” and 191 lbs ) owners the last two seasons.  At the end of the day, the most Spiller touched the ball in college was 252 times in his senior year, so durability remains a concern.    

Fred Jackson – Fabulous Fred gets no love or devotion from his employer. Just when you think he's inline for some quality PT, the Bills go out and grab CJ Spiller, thus "spoiling" (couldn't come up with anything better) what could have been a solid fantasy prospect. Don't believe me?  Check this - in the five games Lynch had under 5 touches (weeks 1,2,3,12,17) Fred Jackson had 768 total yards and 4 TD for an average of 20.16 points per game.  Fred had a decent 2009 campaign notching over 1,400 total yards (including over 1000 rushing) but only 4 TDs (2 rush, 2 receiving).  The TDs aren't really his fault, either, as the team's QBs continue to struggle to complete passes.  With Beast-mode Lynch and CJ Spiller around, there just doesn't seem to be much of an upside for Freddie.

Marshawn Lynch – Beast mode needed a trade in the worst way possible, but the Bills, who are now one of the most poorly run franchises in the league, opted to be stubborn by demanding a 2nd round pick - which no one was willing to cough up.  Shocker.  Who would cough up a 2nd round pick for Lynch, when next year's draft could yield less headaches for your club in the 6th round?  Lynch is talented, but a douche.  Quite the duality to contend with.  Other NFL 'ballers have had more success - like TO for instance. Lynch will be drafted, just not by me.

WR

Lee Evans – It's really difficult to get pumped up for a Lee Evans with Trent Edwards as the Bills' QB1 and Ryan Fitzpatrick there to back him up if Trent gets injured or falters.  Look, I think Evans is a special talent and among the most under-rated WRs in the NFL.  He is a dangerous deep route runner, but Edwards nor Fitz can throw a deep ball.  He'll resume WR1 status on Buffalo, but what does that mean?  130 targets?  He'll be lucky to catch 40% of those ducks.  And 60 recepts won't be enough to command much more than fantasy WR4 status.  It's just not gonna happen for Lee in 2010. It's not gonna happen for him until he gets a decent QB.  I'd be pissed if I was his him (or his agent).  Actually, I just looked up his contract - neither has anything to be pissed about - 4 years for $37.5 mill.  I couldn't be happier for Lee.  He deserves every cent.  And I bet he's also not blowing it all.

2010 Buffalo Bills NFL Draft by Round

Click Here for the 2010 Buffalo Bills Off-season Movement Report!