2009 Fantasy Recap – Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals-  seemed hung-over last season from their 2008 Super Bowl loss.  The Cards were fools to blow all that scratch on Kurt “angelic passes” Warner.   The guy barely finished ahead of David Garrard in fantasy points – and Garrard barely had an oline blocking for him.  Larry Fitzgerald, though, didn’t seem to care as he finished 4^th among WRs by going over 1000 yards for the 4^th time in his career.  Oddly, his yardage totals were far off from the previous two seasons – yet fantasy nation continues to rank him as high as 2^nd among WRs heading into 2010.  Total mistake – I was talked into ranking him 6^th – I had him down at 9^th at one point.    

It didn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that Steve Breaston would bust  after his 1000 yard season in 2008.  Anquan Boldin seemed to be the most hung-over of the bunch as his numbers took a huge hit notching only 4 tuddies and barely broke the 1000 yard mark.   Until inking this piece, I hadn’t even realized that.  I have to take a long hard look at where I’m ranking him now on Baltimore heading into 2010.

Now that the happy pill has kicked in, we can get on to the one piece of good news.  Beanie Wells had a nice 2^nd half finish last season finding pay dirt 6 times in his last 8 games while never seeing more than 17 carries in a game.   He finished the year with a 4.5 YPC rush average. 

Passing Offense  

Rushing Offense  

2010 Offensive Line Analysis

Arizona Cardinals 2010 Oline analysis – provided by UltimateFFstrategy.com

2010 Offensive Philosophy

Ken Whisenhunt is back for a 4^th season and will again be calling plays on offense.  Mike Miller will again assume his role as a glorified WR coach with an OC title.   Whisenhunt needs to figure out another model because chucking the pill another 594 times shouldn’t be an option – unless he wants to go 3-13.  Matt Leinart struggled during his first week of training camp, and he even tried to blame it on new concepts being introduced w/in the scheme (queue eye-brow bend, headshake, and a few chuckles).  It’s nice to see most fantasy sites are ranking Leinart almost outside of the top 24 QBs, but to with that, they are all ranking Fitz too high and Steve Breaston at like 35^th among WRs -  one spot lower than Terrell Owens.  That is both too high for Breaston, and too low for TO.   Some people will never learn. 

AIR:  Leinart will start and don’t be shocked when we see what Derek Anderson can do by about week 6 or 7.  Derek Anderson plays his best football when there is absolutely no pressure on him to perform – so if you are dumb enough to draft Leinart high, you may want to stash Anderson on your bench with a last round pick if you can afford the roster space.   Be clear, I’m not endorsing you to draft either of these cats.   

As already stated, all of the AZ pass-catchers are being ranked WAY too high, and someone will have to explain to me the logic of ranking a Leinart 25^th among QBs, and Fitz 3^rd among WRs, and Breaston 35^th among WRs.   It doesn’t make any sense.   For perspective, Carson Palmer is being ranked around 12^th among QBs, and Ocho at around 15^th among WRs and TO about 34^th among WRs.  Do you see the stupidity in it all?   Neither QB has an established pass catching TE, either.  Look at those numbers and think about it.      

GROUND:  Expect another full blown RBBC in 2010 in the desert with Beanie Wells assuming primary carries.  This team will need to run the ball AT LEAST another 100 times relative to 2009 with Leinart under center.  They finished dead last in attempts in 2009 and that won’t work with Leinart.  The signing of G Alan Faneca from the Jets is a good indicator of a plan to increase the carries.  I think 250 or so carries is a fair estimate for Beanie, which will make him a decent RB2 at the end of the day.  Hightower is a nice handcuff to him, but will probably be limited to 200 total touches.     

QB

Matt Leinart - Someone is going to have to explain to me how Matt Leinart can be considered a sleeper in 2010. To start, Kurt Warner finished 12th among QBs last season - yes, he missed a game, but even his per game average was 12th. Next, Boldin is gone. And finally, Leinart blows. I'm waiting... Right, see? Leinart and his career 70 QB rating is no sleeper. And while I'm at it, neither is Breaston or Early Doucet. And oh yeah, Fitz is a bust, relative to where most people are drafting him - he's anywhere from 2-4 for WRs on ADPs - that's too high.

RB

Beanie Wells - The Cards ranked dead last in rushing attempts in 2009 (365 total), and Wells finished 31st among RBs w/ 7 TDs and just shy of 800 yards rushing. There are two guarantees in store for the 2010 Cardinals: 1)about 100 more carries, because Leinart is no Kurt Warner, 2) Wells will assume the role as primary RB on 1st and 2nd downs thus bringing his carry count to around 250 in 2010. Hightower is their 3rd down aka receiving RB. He's ok in short yardage situations, but Beanie is proving himself there, too, but the critical element to this equation is that Hightower is not as effective on 1st and 2nd down. He's not quick enough to turn the corner, and isn't strong running in-between the tackles (4.2 YPC vs. Wells' 4.6 YPC. The last 4 or so games saw Beanie getting 65-70% of the RB touches. There is a cap on Beanie's upside, so long as Hightower is around and healthy. Both backs will also get a nice lift with the recent acquisition of Alan Faneca from the Jets. It has been said that Faneca is well past his prime, but at the end of the day, wherever he's been in his career, the associated running game has been stellar (2008-9 w/ the Jets, and the Steelers boasted a top 10 or 5 rushing attack in almost every year he was w/ them - when he left after 2007, the Steeler rush attack went to $#!t.)

Tim Hightower - The Cards attempted among the lowest rushes in the NFL in 2009, but that will not be the case in 2010 as the Cards don't have Kurt Warner (or Boldin) around any longer.  Their replacements are Matt Leinart under center, and Steve Breaston.  Two huge downgrades.  The good news for the Cards is that hey have an up and coming stud at RB in Beanie Wells.  This is also bad news for Hightower fans, as he averaged almost 1/2 yard left per carry and 5 yards less per reception.  Wells is, by far, the more talented RB.  Hightower's number might actually stay level, just by way of the increased rush attempts for AZ, but given the limited upside, I can't see ranking him any higher than this.  He makes for an EXCELLENT handcuff to Beanie, though.

WR

Larry Fitzgerald - The X's and O's are pretty simple on this one - Fitz averaged 5 catches for 73 yards and .45 TDs per game w/ Leinart under center. And he averaged 6.2 catches for 84 yards and .7 TDs per game with Warner. So ehhh, yeah, paint me the skeptic. I'm seeing him drafted among the first 4 WRs. I know he's a sick talent, but I just think this is more where he *should* go. In other words, if you are listening to me, he won't be on your team this season.

Early Doucet - Early Doucet is a very similar type of WR to Anquan Boldin, and while Breaston is thought to be the lead candidate for Quan's reps, Doucet will have plenty to say about that.  If there was such a thing as a super-mega-deep sleeper (god, that sounded like the Talentless Mrs. Roto), Doucet would be my number one candidate.  I'd easily bust a late round flier on this cat.  He'll be a solid fantasy WR if he ever finds himself in the right situation.

Steve Breaston - Breaston slides into the spot vacated by Anquan Boldin - or so this is assumed.  He made a name for himself the year that the Cards (2008) had three 1000 yard receivers (and went to the Super bowl), but didn't do much in 2009.  He's not real big (189 lbs and 6'0"), but does have some good hands.  I think Early Doucet is the better of these two, and he will be given a shot to start.  Early is built more like 'Quan standing at 6'0 but 212 lbs.  That would move Breaston back to the slot.  I don't see either of these guys making a fantasy impact.  Hell, I barely have Fitz in the top ten!

2010 Arizona Cardinals NFL Draft by Round

Click here for 2010 Arizona Cardinals Off-season Movement

Arizona Cardinals

Defensive Stats 2009 

Vs Run            17^th in league   113 ypg

Vs Pass            23^rd in league   234 ypg

Offensive Stats 2009

Run                 28^th in league   93 ygp

Pass                 12^th in league   251 ypg

What they did well last year?

The Passing Game – I heard an announcer for the Cardinals say a great line last year when he said “Kurt Warner could throw a twinkie into a toaster!”  He was that good.  Warner was the type of player that elevated every player around him and it was apparent as Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston, and Doucet tore apart defensive secondaries all season.  However, Warner is now retired and Boldin will be catching quick slants over the middle from Joe Flacco in Baltimore this year.

What they need to do to improve?

Defensive Secondary – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (DRC) is going to be a great corner back in the league but Bryant McFadden was absolutely horrible last year in coverage.  This was made most apparent in the playoff game against Green Bay in which all 4 of Rodgers TD passes were targeted at McFadden.  Green Bay rotated receivers against McFadden and over 2/3 of Rodgers completions were targeted to McFadden’s side of the field.  Antrel Rolle shifted to free safety last year and continued to jump routes very well coming down with 4 INTs.  However, Rolle was not a consistent tackler and often would miss tackles while trying to go for the big hit.

Retool the Offense to Better Fit Their Personnel – Warner helped to make this team into a high powered air attack offense.  Leinhart will not be as fortunate.  Leinhart has struggled with his accuracy and consistently throws high and behind his receivers.  However, Leinhart does have the arm strength to throw the occasional deep pass as we saw against New England in week 16 of 2008 when he hit Fitzgerald for a 78 yard TD late in the game amidst a snow storm.  This team will need to shift the balance of their offense to favor more quick release passing plays, a healthy amount of running plays, and play action to set up the occasional deep ball.

Can they improve & WHY?

Defensive Secondary – In a word… NO.  Rolle was released and Kerry Rhodes was brought in from the Jets.  Rhodes has proven to be a much better tackler than Rolle, but Rhodes was considered by some coaches to be suspect in his coverage skills.  Furthermore, when McFadden was traded back to Pittsburgh, Arizona did little to find a replacement at the corner back position opposite DRC.  If other teams can borrow from Green Bay’s playoff playbook, they will continue to attack that side of the field all season unless Greg Toler can develop into the type of corner back that the Arizona management believes he can be.  Until that time, they will still be facing a glaring hole in their starting defensive secondary.

Offensive Approach – The coaching staff is preparing itself for a shift to more of a run based offense.  This was made apparent when they signed Alan Faneca from the Jets to bolster the offensive line at left guard.  Not only did they revamp their offensive line by signing Alan Faneca, but they also resigned Deuce Lutui and brought in Rex Hadnot from Cleveland to help provide some depth for the line.  The pieces are slowly falling into place for Arizona to shift to a power run based offense.

So What Does All This Mean For My Fantasy Football Draft?  

1.)    If you are in need of a bye week replacement at QB, you may want to consider a QB that is facing the Cardinals.  Teams will be tempted to throw more against Arizona this season and it could bode well for the stats of opposing QBs.

2.)    Arizona should run the ball a lot more this season.  This will give Chris Wells and Tim Hightower more production.  Last year they combined for almost 1400 yards and 15 TDs and I would not be surprised to see that total come closer to 1800 rushing yards this year.

Click here for our 2009 Analysis on the Arizona Cardinals - Published July 2009