Start 'Em - Sit 'Em - Week 8: 2010
Week 8!
Start 'Em
QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick - @ Kansas City - I doubted him last week but I have done a complete 180 and now am a believer. You can't blame me. He played with Issac Bruce, Torry Holt, Chad Johnson, and T.J Houshmanzadeh and did nothing; in fact, he did worse than nothing, as he sent each former fantasy stud into fantasy oblivion. Now all of a sudden with Lee Evans and Steve Johnson, he is unstoppable and averaging per game more than any other fantasy QB. Chan Gailey did it a few years back (2007) on KC when Tyler Thigpen averaged 21.95 fantasy points as the starter his final 8 games employing this spread offense. Fitzpatrick’s 36.7 fantasy points against the Ravens last Sunday is the most the Ravens have given up to a QB since 2003. The Chiefs pass defense has been all over the map as they held Peyton Manning to under 12 fantasy points but gave up over 15 fantasy points to Alex Smith and Seneca Wallace, and 19.9 fantasy points to little known but quite old Todd Bouman.
The Bills’ last 11 offensive TDs have all been thru the air. Over their last four games, the Bills in the Red zone are passing almost twice as much as they our rushing. They have thrown 20 passes in which 8 have resulted in TD and only have ran the ball 11 times in the RZ. This kid is fantasy gold the rest of the way.
Jon Kitna – home vs. Jacksonville - There was some concern that he turned 38 years old last month and has not started a game in two years. Well, just know that he has a lot more to work with now than he did in the “313” in 2006 with Roy Williams, Mike Furrey, Dan Campbell, and Shaun McDonald (while finishing 3rd among QBs). And he finished 11th the following year w/ a similar supporting cast. Last week, Kitna scored 17.4 fantasy points in under 3 quarters of game time against a NYG Giants D that is 7th best in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Kitna goes up against a Jaguar secondary that is giving up the second most fantasy points to QBs this season. This defense is so bad that over the past two weeks, despite having to defend only 39 pass attempts (because the Titans just basically ran every down), they still managed to cough up 17.1 fantasy pts per to QBs– and that was against Matt Cassell and Kerry Collins (and VY). Kitna is a lock for 17 fantasy points, and probably a lot more than that. Lock… one word that you should never use in fantasy football.
Matt Stafford – home vs. Washington - He has the perfect matchup to come back from injury against a Redskins defense that is giving up 292 passing yards per game. The Redskins are allowing an average of 22.1 fantasy points to QB per game in 2010. The Lions really have the passing game going right now. Over their last 5 games, Lions’ QBs are averaging 24.72 fantasy PPG. That includes Drew Stanton’s 18.1 fantasy points in a half against the Giants. With a week to game plan for this pathetic defense, Stafford should be in for a 20+ game this weekend at home. Don’t be fooled by Cutler’s 4 picks in week 7 at the hands of these ‘Skins, the Bears have the worst offensive line in the history of the National Football League and Cutler is not himself.
RB
Thomas Jones – home vs. Buffalo - He is starting to turn it on as he has rushed for over 100 yards two straight weeks and scored over 17 fantasy points both weeks. This is usually the time of the season Jones steps it up. From 2007-2009 in weeks 1-5, Jones averaged 58.21 rush YPG. In weeks 6-17 over the last 3 years, he is averaging 88.76 rush YPG and this year is no exception. In weeks 1-4 (he had the bye in week 5), Jones averaged 59 rush YPG and in weeks 6 and 7, he is averaging 112.5 rush YPG. Jones faces a Bills defense that has given up an average of 206 rush YPG over their last four contests. Over that 4 game period, there have been 22 total plays run inside the Bills 10 yard line and that is Thomas Jones’ territory; the Chiefs have run 26 plays inside the ten and 12 of those have been hand offs to Thomas Jones. For the season, Jones has gotten 12 of the Chiefs 19 handoffs inside the 10. The Bills have allowed 4 rushing TDs on only 5 attempts from 5 yard and in this season. Ronnie Brown, BJGE, LT, and Willis McGahee have all notched fantasy highs against the Bills’ rush D.
Donald Brown or Mike Hart - whoever starts – home vs. Houston – MNF - Seven different backs have scored at least 10 fantasy points against Houston. Marion Barber and Clinton Portis scored their only rushing TD of the season against Houston. Over their last 3 games, Houston has allowed an average of 189 total yards to RBs and four TDs for an average of 28.86 fantasy points per game. Why is any Colts back who gets the majority of carries a must start? In 10 starts in 2001, Dominick Rhodes averaged 16.5 fantasy points. In one start in 2002, James Mungro scored 25.4 fantasy points. In 2003, the *other* Ricky Williams started 3 games and averaged 13.73 fantasy points. In 2007, Kenneth Keith Started one game and scored 27.8 fantasy points. In 2008, Dominick Rhodes started four games and averaged 18.2 fantasy points.
Ryan Torian - @ Detroit - There are not too many fulltime backs in the NFL, and with Portis being injured, Torian has taken on that roll. Over the last three games, he has carried the ball 57 out of the Redskins 61 carries between the running backs or 93.4 % of the rush attempts. He has played well the past two weeks going over 100 yards in both games and scoring two TDs. This week he goes up against a Lions’ rushing defense that is the worst in the league in fantasy points allowed to RB. In six weeks this season, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, and Brandon Jacobs have had their best fantasy weeks against the Lions. For the season, RBs facing the Lions are averaging 170 total yards. They have allowed 9 rushing scores, too.
Marion Barber – home vs. Jacksonville - This one will get a chuckle. He has done nothing so far this season. Barber did manage to score against a porous Lions rush defense and Jacksonville is not much better. In 2010, there have been 73 Red Zone total plays run against the Jaguars and Marion Barber is still the RZ back on Dallas. Barber owns 14 of the 17 RZ rush attempts for Dallas in 2010. Speaking of the number 17, the Jags have had 17 rush attempts against them inside their own 5 which have resulted in 9 TDs. Barber might not have a monster game, but 10-12 pts is a near lock. There I go again, “lock”, one word that just doesn’t belong in the fantasy football lexicon.
WR
Pierre Garcon – home vs. Houston – MNF - With Austin Collie and Dallas Clark out, Garcon should put up fantasy WR1 numbers against a Houston defense that is giving up 28.2 fantasy points to receivers (2nd worst in the NFL). Manning have averaged over 300 pass yards per and thrown 28 TDs over his last 13 games facing the Texans. In week one, Manning threw for 433 yards and 3 TDs vs. the Texans. 9 WRs or TEs have gone for at least 12 points against the Texans’ pass D.
Steve Johnson - @ Kansas City - He is averaging 15 fantasy points over his last four games including the monstrous outbreak last week coming off the bye. The Bills are starting to use him more now too. In his first four games he was only targeted 22 times in his last two games he has been targeted 19 times. He has also played well in the Red Zone scoring 3 TD on 5 targets. Johnson right now is just too hot to leave on the bench. This pickup will make a difference to fantasy teams for the 2nd half.
Dwayne Bowe – home vs. Buffalo - He has now scored 4 TDs over his last two games which is as many as he has had over his previous 15. Granted the two defenses he played are Houston and Jacksonville which happen to be the two worst defenses in allowing fantasy points to receivers. Bowe has caught 5 of the 6 TDs among Chief WRs. This week he has another great matchup against a Bills team that has allowed at least 34 points in five straight games. Over the 5 games there have been 54 RZ plays run against the Bills or a little under 11 per game.
Roy Williams – home vs. Jacksonville - Roy Williams had his best season of his career playing catch w/ Jon Kitna (1310 yards and 7 TD). That was four years ago though and that's not the reason I like him this week. Think Jacksonville. . The Jaguars are allowing the most points to fantasy receivers this year at just under 30 fantasy points per game. Williams has been targeted twice in the RZ three straight weeks.
Lee Evans - @ KC - He has scored 43.2 fantasy points over his last two games including 28.5 points last week against the Ravens. As with Steve Johnson, he is too hot now to keep out of the lineup.
Kenny Britt - @ San Diego -Just like Lee Evans I am not a huge fan of his. If he is on your roster you have to start him. He has five straight games with a TD including last week’s 3 TD game in which he went for 225 receiving yards which is 16 more yards then he had total for the first six games of the season.
Mike Williams - @ Oakland - Two weeks ago Pete Carroll said he would make a commitment to getting Mike Williams more involved and he kept his word on that and then some. It's not the 27 fantasy points he has scored over his last two games that jumps out at me; it’s the fact Williams has been targeted 31 times in the last two games (40% of the pass attempts). Anyone getting that type of attention from his QB is a must start until the trend changes.
Jabar Gaffney - @ San Francisco - SF pass defense has allowed 23 fantasy points to Matt Hasselbeck, Matt Cassel, & Matt Moore. Last week, Brandon Lafell and David Gettis combined for 216 yards and 2 TD against them. Over his last 5 games, Gaffney has been targeted an average 10 times including 6 of the team’s 13 RZ targets. He’s bound to go off here, soon.
TE
Jason Witten – home vs. Jacksonville - I have bagged on this guy quite a bit this season and rightfully so. He went on a streak where he only found the end zone 1 time in17 games and 6 in 38 games. I can't help but see the stats that 11 of Kitna’s 33 passes last week were intended for him, and he delivered by catching 8 of them. Witten is the only Cowboy who will benefit with Kitna being in instead of Romo. Instead of long passes expect a bunch of check offs to Witten. There should be plenty of points to go around for Dallas. The Jaguars are giving up an average of 32 points a game over their last 6 games with all 6 of their opponents scoring at least 26 points.
Kickers
Ryan Succop – home vs Buffalo – The Bills have given up 31 points to kickers the last two weeks. At worst you should get seven fantasy points from Succop. The Bills have allowed at least seven fantasy points to every kicker they faced this season
Connor Barth - @ Arizona – Arizona is allowing 3.6 FGA per game, and our on pace to give up 59 FGA on the season. Over the last 10 years no team has allowed more than 43 FGA in a season. Last week Olindo Mare kicked 5 FG on 5 FGA. Coming into the game Mare only had 4 FGA on the season
Sebastian Janikowski – Home vs Seattle – The Raiders are second in the league with 78 plays run in the Red Zone. Janikowski has scored at least 9 fantasy points in 5 of his last 6 games
Defense
Tennessee - @ San Diego – The Titans have 25 sacks which is tied for most in the NFL. The Chargers have allowed 20 sacks which is the fourth most in the NFL. For the season defenses are averaging 9.71 fantasy points against the Chargers. So far this year 5 of the 7 defenses that have faced the Chargers have scored at least 8 points. Only four defenses in the league are averaging 8 points or more on the season
Sit Em
RB
Chris Ivory – home vs. Pittsburgh - Pierre Thomas will miss another game this week meaning Ivory will once again get the majority of carries. This week he plays a Steelers defense that has yet to allow a running back to reach 50 yards and have allowed only one rushing TD all season. If the Steelers give up a rushing TD, it will be from short distance. They have yet to allow a carry over 14 yards this season unfortunately for Ivory owners, he has yet to receive a carry inside the five yard line.
Ronnie Brown & Ricky Williams - @ Cinci - Last year thru 6 games, these two had a combined 187.5 fantasy points or an average of 31.25 combined fantasy points per game. This year thru 6 weeks, they have combined for 83.8 fantasy points or 13.96 fantasy points per game. Keep these two on the bench until Miami gets their running game back on track.
WR
Wes Welker – home vs. New England - He is averaging 4.82 fantasy points over his last four games and clearly is not the same player he was before the ACL injury. He is averaging less than 50 yards per game and has not scored a TD in four weeks. If you’re a Welker owner, it’s time to start looking for other options. People that thought without Moss Welker’s production would go up are wrong. It's been the complete opposite. Without Moss it shrinks the field and those short slants are much easier to defend. And with Deion Branch in the fold, the short slants can be had by two receivers now.
Steve Smith (Carolina) - @ St Louis - The QB situation in Carolina is a mess. They don 't have the present in Matt Moore or the future in Jimmy Clausen on the team. Over his last three starts, Smith has only been targeted 16 times and has only accounted for 83 yards and no TDs. Smith is a big play guy. Since the start of the 2008 season only 6 of his 17 TD have come inside the Red Zone. The Rams have done a great job of stopping the big play. They have only allowed one passing play of 40+ yards and all 8 of their passing TD allowed have come inside the RZ. This doesn’t appear to be a matchup in favor of Steve Smith, despite ST Louis being ranked 24th in yards allowed thru the air.
